U.S. Midterms · November 3, 2026
NotAPoll.org
Democracy, rehearsed.U.S. Senate · 2026

The 2026 midterms,
simulated every day.

Synthetic voters react to each day’s news, and 40,000 simulated elections turn their reactions into chances for all 35 Senate races.

Not a poll. Nobody was asked anything.

Senate races
35
Simulated elections a day
40,000
First public forecast
Oct 12
Forecasts in12days–hr–min–sec
How it works
Synthetic voters
Illustration, not data. Each square is a synthetic voter. When a story spreads, persuadable voters shift and voters unsure whether to vote light up; firm partisans barely move. Then the effect fades.

How it works

Polls ask people. We simulate how people react.

1 · Where each race starts

Real statistics

Past results, the economy and the poll average set every race's starting line. The simulation never invents it.

2 · How the news moves it

Synthetic voters react

Synthetic voters, built from real data on how groups of Americans vote, react to each day's events. Only those who could still change their mind, or still decide whether to vote, move the numbers, and every story fades.

3 · Who wins, and how often

40,000 simulated elections

Each race is played out 40,000 times a day. The share a candidate wins is their chance: between 35 and 65 in 100 is a toss-up.

Scored in public

Every number, beside the benchmarks.

Each forecast sits next to four others, and every Monday from October 19 all of them are scored by the same rules. The misses get published too. Where states publish early-vote counts, the real counts check the simulated turnout.

ForecastWhat it is
Our social simulationStatistics plus synthetic voters, corrected every Monday.
Statistics onlyThe same model with the simulation switched off: the number to beat.
Poll averageThe average of published polls in each race.
Prediction marketsKalshi and Polymarket prices, averaged.
Cook Political ReportExpert race ratings.

The road to November 3

  1. Oct 3

    The making-of begins

    Lab notes: what we tested, what failed, what we changed.

  2. Oct 5–11

    Private rehearsal

    The full daily run, five states, nothing published.

  3. Oct 12

    Forecasts go public

    All 35 Senate races, updated every day.

  4. Oct 19

    First public score

    Then every Monday, good weeks and bad.

  5. Nov 3

    Election Day

    The final forecast, then the results decide.

The map

35 Senate seats are up.

Republicans hold 22 of them and Democrats 13. Republicans need 50 seats to keep the chamber, with the Vice President's tie-break. From October 12, every square gets a forecast.

Alaska: seat held by RepublicansAKMaine: seat held by RepublicansMEVT: no Senate race in 2026VTNew Hampshire: seat held by DemocratsNHWA: no Senate race in 2026WAIdaho: seat held by RepublicansIDMontana: seat held by RepublicansMTND: no Senate race in 2026NDMinnesota: seat held by DemocratsMNIllinois: seat held by DemocratsILWI: no Senate race in 2026WIMichigan: seat held by DemocratsMINY: no Senate race in 2026NYRhode Island: seat held by DemocratsRIMassachusetts: seat held by DemocratsMAOregon: seat held by DemocratsORNV: no Senate race in 2026NVWyoming: seat held by RepublicansWYSouth Dakota: seat held by RepublicansSDIowa: seat held by RepublicansIAIN: no Senate race in 2026INOhio (special): seat held by RepublicansOHPA: no Senate race in 2026PANew Jersey: seat held by DemocratsNJCT: no Senate race in 2026CTCA: no Senate race in 2026CAUT: no Senate race in 2026UTColorado: seat held by DemocratsCONebraska: seat held by RepublicansNEMO: no Senate race in 2026MOKentucky: seat held by RepublicansKYWest Virginia: seat held by RepublicansWVVirginia: seat held by DemocratsVAMD: no Senate race in 2026MDDelaware: seat held by DemocratsDEAZ: no Senate race in 2026AZNew Mexico: seat held by DemocratsNMKansas: seat held by RepublicansKSArkansas: seat held by RepublicansARTennessee: seat held by RepublicansTNNorth Carolina: seat held by RepublicansNCSouth Carolina: seat held by RepublicansSCDC: no Senate race in 2026DCOklahoma: seat held by RepublicansOKLouisiana: seat held by RepublicansLAMississippi: seat held by RepublicansMSAlabama: seat held by RepublicansALGeorgia: seat held by DemocratsGAHI: no Senate race in 2026HITexas: seat held by RepublicansTXFlorida (special): seat held by RepublicansFL
  • Held by Republicans
  • Held by Democrats
  • No race

A dot marks a special election.

The racesWho is runningShow all 35
StateCandidates
AlabamaEverett Wess (D) vs. Barry Moore (R)
AlaskaMary Peltola (D) vs. Dan S. Sullivan (R)
ArkansasHallie Shoffner (D) vs. Tom Cotton (R)
ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper (D) vs. Mark Baisley (R)
DelawareChris Coons (D) vs. Michael Katz (R)
Florida (special)Angie Nixon (D) vs. Ashley Moody (R)
GeorgiaJon Ossoff (D) vs. Mike Collins (R)
IdahoTodd Achilles (I) vs. Jim Risch (R)
IllinoisJuliana Stratton (D) vs. Don Tracy (R)
IowaJosh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R)
KansasAdam Hamilton (D) vs. Roger Marshall (R)
KentuckyCharles Booker (D) vs. Andy Barr (R)
LouisianaJamie Davis (D) vs. Julia Letlow (R)
MaineTroy Jackson (D) vs. Susan Collins (R)
MassachusettsEd Markey (D) vs. John Deaton (R)
MichiganAbdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
MinnesotaPeggy Flanagan (D) vs. Michele Tafoya (R)
MississippiScott Colom (D) vs. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
MontanaSeth Bodnar (I) vs. Kurt Alme (R)
NebraskaDan Osborn (I) vs. Pete Ricketts (R)
New HampshireChris Pappas (D) vs. John E. Sununu (R)
New JerseyCory Booker (D) vs. Justin Murphy (R)
New MexicoBen Ray Luján (D) vs. Larry Marker (R)
North CarolinaRoy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R)
Ohio (special)Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)
OklahomaN'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) vs. Kevin Hern (R)
OregonJeff Merkley (D) vs. David Brock Smith (R)
Rhode IslandJack Reed (D) vs. Raymond McKay (R)
South CarolinaAnnie Andrews (D) vs. Darline Graham (R)
South DakotaBrian Bengs (I) vs. Mike Rounds (R)
TennesseeMarquita Bradshaw (D) vs. Bill Hagerty (R)
TexasJames Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)
VirginiaMark Warner (D) vs. Bert Mizusawa (R)
West VirginiaRachel Fetty Anderson (D) vs. Shelley Moore Capito (R)
WyomingJames W. Byrd (D) vs. Harriet Hageman (R)

Candidates as nominated or expected; updated as primaries and appointments settle.

Follow the build

Lab notes go out from October 3: what we tested, what failed, what we changed. Then the forecasts, every day.